Every January the forecasts arrive. This year, read together, they tell a consistent story: Milan is no longer racing as it did in 2021 and 2022, but it is not standing still. The research teams of the main operators expect prices to grow between 2 and 4 per cent in 2026, with the centre and the prime districts above average.
The number, however, says little. It is more interesting to understand where and why.
A two-speed city
In 2025 the Milan market showed two faces. On one side, ordinary homes, where affordability weighs: incomes have not kept up with prices, and many buyers have moved towards the hinterland or towards districts in transformation. On the other, the prime segment, where demand still exceeds supply and selling times, for the right properties, have stayed short.
In between lies the decisive variable: quality. An apartment with light, good proportions, documents in order and a coherent price sells. One with undeclared flaws, or offered at a price meant to "see how it goes", stays on the market and loses value every week.
What supports demand
- Rates. The ECB brought the deposit rate to 2 per cent in June and has not touched it since. Mortgages cost far less than in 2023, and stability helps anyone who needs to plan.
- New residents. The flat tax has risen to €300,000, but international interest in Milan remains solid.
- The city's calendar. The Olympics in February and the Salone del Mobile in April bring attention, investment and, above all, infrastructure that stays.
What holds it back
Scarcity. Little is built in the historic centre, and quality renovations take a long time. Anyone looking for a penthouse in Brera or a piano nobile in Magenta finds few alternatives, and often has to wait for the right moment rather than negotiate on price.
In 2026 what will matter is not how far the market rises, but how well a home is prepared to meet it.
For sellers
It is a good year to sell a quality home, provided it is presented as it deserves: a price grounded in data rather than hope, complete documentation before the first viewing, images that convey light and materials, screened viewings. 2026 is also the last year of the 50 per cent tax deduction on renovations of a main residence: anyone planning small works before selling would do well to consider them now.
For buyers
It pays to arrive prepared: a clear budget, a mortgage already discussed with the bank, a list of non-negotiable priorities. The best homes are decided in a few days, and those still working out what they want risk watching them go by.
This year, Milan chooses. It rewards well-kept homes, honest prices and people who know what they want.
Real estate advisor · Milan